You were part of a recent study that looked at socio-economic vulnerability to natural hazards in India. What did you find?
In our study, we took census data on income, electricity, caste, employment, etc, and created an index called the socio-vulnerability index, and compared it to how people fared during hazards. Surprisingly, we found good news. Although hydro-climatic hazards are increasing, mortality from those hazards declined in the period between 2001-2011. So the system’s response has improved. But incomes have also gone up, employment has become more stable — although the lockdown may have changed that — and women’s education has improved. Women who are educated are better able to respond to government warnings. Socio-economic vulnerability to hazards actually declined in that decade.
How prepared is India for changing cyclones?
In general, disaster management has gotten much better, although some last-mile issues remain with forecasting. Who is taking IMD’s warnings to the neighbourhood level? That is where women’s education can play a role. On the broader issue of mangroves and reefs, coastal development is still not as careful as it should be, and urban drainage systems are not adequate. As you go inland, deforestation and land degradation play a role in vulnerability. Policies have to take into account that maybe cyclones are getting stronger and coming to regions they didn’t come to before. Some kind of holistic approach is needed.